NYSE$ARR

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ARMOUR Residential REIT announced its financial position for Q1 2020, detailing the impacts of COVID-19 and risk mitigation efforts.

ARMOUR Residential REIT reported a stockholders' equity of $786 million and liquidity of $360 million, while navigating market volatility due to COVID-19 by reducing its Agency Securities portfolio and managing its swap portfolio.

  • Book value per common share was $11.10.
  • Liquidity, including cash and unencumbered securities, was $360 million.
  • Stockholders' equity totaled $786 million, including preferred stock.
  • Debt to equity ratio was 4.4 to 1.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$41.3M

Previous: $33.8M+22.3%
EPS (adj)

$2.15

Previous: $3.05-29.5%
Book Value Per Common Share

$11.10

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$407M

Previous: -$114M-255.5%
Net Income

-$407M

Previous: -$114M-255.5%
Operating Income

$31.4M

Previous: $24M+30.8%
Gross Profit

$41.3M

Previous: $33.8M+22.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$334M

Previous: $167M+99.5%
Total Assets

$5.07B

Previous: $14B-63.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$1M

Previous: $644K+55.4%

Revenue & EPS history

ARMOUR Residential REIT · Revenue · Quarterly

$41.3M

Q1 2020+22.3%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 3 of 16 quarters(19%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

ARMOUR expects to announce its decision regarding the amount of second quarter dividends on common stock in the latter part of June 2020 as well as whether the Company will return to its prior monthly dividend policy.

Tailwinds

  • Company will move to a quarterly dividend on its common stock for the second quarter of 2020.
  • Adopting the more conventional policy of announcing quarterly dividends towards the end of the quarter, the Company believes it can maintain greater flexibility and generate increased liquidity.
  • Company is required to timely distribute substantially all of its ordinary REIT taxable income for the tax year to maintain its tax status as a REIT.
  • ARMOUR’s Board of Directors will evaluate the Company’s results, financial position, real estate investment trust (“REIT”) tax requirements, and overall market conditions as the quarter progresses.
  • ARMOUR’s liquidity exceeded $460 million as of April 27, 2020.

Headwinds

  • The extent of the ultimate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Company's operational and financial performance will depend on various developments, including the duration of the outbreak and the spread of the virus and the federal government's and states' responses to the virus, which cannot be reasonably predicted at this time.
  • Company is not able to estimate the future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic at this time.
  • COVID-19 pandemic could continue to materially affect the Company’s future financial and operational results.
  • The Company's March 2020 loss on its Agency Securities portfolio was driven by the widening of mortgage spreads and the collapse of preferential market valuations of the specific demographic characteristics represented in our portfolio.
  • The CRT portfolio experienced dramatic declines in both estimated market values and trading activity in March, reflecting market fear and uncertainty about the impact of the Coronavirus on mortgage delinquencies and defaults.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

31 / 64 earnings

Positive

+9.1%

Q2 2022

Best reaction

-12.1%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.3%+0.3%-5.7%
Q4 2025-0.2%+2.8%-12.4%
Q3 2025+1.1%+3.3%+5.3%
Q1 2025-0.4%+3.8%-1.0%
Q4 2024+1.6%+0.2%-0.6%
Q3 2024-0.4%-3.0%-5.1%
Q2 2024-5.5%-3.7%-5.9%
Q1 2024-1.1%-3.0%+1.3%
Q4 2023+4.8%+3.9%+2.0%
Q3 2023-7.0%-9.0%+14.4%
Q2 2023+0.2%-1.4%-6.2%
Q1 2023+1.2%-0.4%-5.0%
Q4 2022-1.0%-1.0%-19.4%
Q3 2022+5.4%+7.3%+18.8%
Q2 2022+9.1%+10.8%+2.4%
Q1 2022+3.9%+2.8%+5.0%
Q4 2021-2.1%-0.1%-3.9%
Q3 2021-0.9%+0.9%-6.5%
Q2 2021-6.6%-5.0%-4.4%
Q1 2021-0.3%+0.5%-1.7%
Q4 2020-4.4%-1.2%-0.6%
Q3 2020+3.5%+3.5%+11.6%
Q2 2020-2.4%-4.6%-1.6%
Q1 2020-12.1%-11.9%-14.7%
Q4 2019+4.0%+0.4%-61.6%
Q3 2019-1.4%-2.6%-0.5%
Q2 2019-3.4%-3.8%-10.1%
Q1 2019-3.9%-3.9%-9.4%
Q4 2018-1.3%-1.7%-8.0%
Q3 2018+4.6%+5.9%+7.5%
Q2 2018+2.4%+3.3%+2.9%
Q1 2018-0.4%-0.3%+1.2%
Q4 2017+0.6%+1.4%-0.7%
Q3 2017-5.1%-5.6%-5.0%
Q2 2017+0.9%+1.0%+6.4%
Q1 2017+3.8%+5.3%+8.0%
Q4 2016+1.9%+0.5%+2.5%
Q3 2016+0.1%+1.8%-4.2%
Q2 2016+3.3%+5.1%+1.7%
Q1 2016-5.8%
Q4 2015+2.6%
Q3 2015+1.7%
Q2 2015+6.4%
Q1 2015-2.9%
Q4 2014+1.9%
Q3 2014-2.5%
Q2 2014-0.9%
Q1 2014-0.9%
Q4 2013+1.2%
Q3 2013-7.0%
Q2 2013-4.6%
Q1 2013-0.8%
Q4 2012+0.9%
Q3 2012-0.8%
Q2 2012+2.3%
Q4 2011+0.5%
Q1 2011+0.6%
Q1 2012+1.2%
Q3 2011-1.2%
Q4 2010-2.7%
Q2 2011-2.7%
Q3 2010+0.1%
Q2 2010+0.3%
Q1 2010+3.0%

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