NYSE$AON

Aon plc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Aon reported a 2% increase in total revenue to $3.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, driven by strong organic revenue growth and increased fiduciary investment income.

Aon delivered a strong fourth quarter, with total revenue increasing 2% to $3.1 billion, including 5% organic revenue growth. Operating margin improved to 32.3%, and adjusted EPS increased 5% to $3.89. The company also repurchased $675 million in shares.

  • Total revenue increased 2% to $3.1 billion, with organic revenue growth of 5%.
  • Operating margin increased 70 basis points to 32.3%, and adjusted operating margin increased 40 basis points to 33.2%.
  • EPS decreased 19% to $3.14, while adjusted EPS increased 5% to $3.89.
  • Aon repurchased 2.3 million class A ordinary shares for approximately $675 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.13B

No prior period
EPS (adj)

$3.89

No prior period
Operating Margin

32.3%

No prior period
Adjusted Operating Margin

33.2%

No prior period
Diluted Shares

209.3M

No prior period
Effective Tax Rate

6.1%

No prior period
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate

9.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$49M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$1.21B

No prior period
Net Income

$657M

No prior period
Operating Income

$1.01B

No prior period
Cash & Equivalents

$690M

No prior period
Total Assets

$33.9B

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Aon · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.13B

Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 2 of 5 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Aon · $3.13B total across 4 segments · Q4 2022

  • Commercial Risk
    $1.82B
  • Health
    $678M
  • Wealth
    $353M
  • Reinsurance
    $281M

Forward guidance

The company expects an unfavorable impact from foreign currency translation on adjusted operating income for the first quarter and full year 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Continued strong retention in Commercial Risk Solutions.
  • Net new business generation across segments.
  • Management of the renewal book portfolio.
  • Ongoing investments in Aon Business Services-enabled technology platforms.
  • Technology investments to drive long-term growth.

Headwinds

  • Expected unfavorable impact of approximately $0.13 per share from foreign currency translation in Q1 2023.
  • Expected unfavorable impact of approximately $0.12 per share from foreign currency translation for full year 2023.
  • Lower external deal volume impacting Transaction Solutions in U.S. retail brokerage.
  • Potential for continued unfavorable impact of exchange rates on the remeasurement of assets and liabilities.
  • Higher incentive compensation payments following strong performance in 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

33%

11 / 33 earnings

Positive

+5.1%

Q1 2021

Best reaction

-9.4%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%-1.1%+1.3%
Q4 2025+2.0%+2.1%-2.2%
Q3 2025+3.8%+4.1%+7.8%
Q2 2025+4.6%-0.4%+5.2%
Q1 2025-8.0%-2.8%-2.3%
Q4 2024+0.3%-1.1%+4.0%
Q3 2024-0.5%+0.1%+6.3%
Q2 2024+0.0%+0.8%+12.0%
Q1 2024+0.0%-4.4%-15.5%
Q4 2022+0.0%-0.5%+2.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.5%+3.2%
Q2 2023-5.1%-4.1%-1.5%
Q1 2023-2.3%-3.8%-6.7%
Q3 2022+2.4%-1.1%+8.8%
Q2 2022-0.6%-2.3%-2.4%
Q1 2022-9.4%-8.1%-11.4%
Q3 2021-0.4%-8.2%-8.4%
Q2 2021-1.4%-1.7%+8.1%
Q1 2021+5.1%+6.3%+5.9%
Q3 2020-1.5%-1.8%+10.6%
Q2 2020-1.1%-4.3%-3.5%
Q1 2020+3.2%+2.6%+14.1%
Q3 2019-1.4%+1.7%+4.3%
Q2 2019-1.2%-3.9%-3.9%
Q1 2019+0.3%-2.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+1.6%+4.1%+7.5%
Q2 2018-2.5%-4.0%-1.9%
Q1 2018-0.4%+0.9%+0.1%
Q3 2017-3.3%-5.5%-8.3%
Q2 2017-0.0%+0.9%-0.1%
Q1 2017+1.2%+1.2%+7.2%
Q3 2016+2.7%-0.8%+5.0%
Q2 2016-3.0%-0.6%-0.3%

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