NYSE$ALK

Alaska Air Group Inc · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alaska Air Group reported financial results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2022.

Alaska Air Group reported a net loss of $143 million for the first quarter of 2022, or $1.14 per share. Excluding special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge accounting adjustments, the net loss was $167 million, or $1.33 per share. The company generated $287 million in operating cash flow and held $2.9 billion in unrestricted cash and marketable securities.

  • Reported net loss for the first quarter of 2022 under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) of $143 million, or $1.14 per share
  • Reported net loss for the first quarter of 2022, excluding special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge accounting adjustments, of $167 million, or $1.33 per share
  • Generated $287 million in operating cash flow for the first quarter, driven by increased advance bookings as both leisure and business demand for air travel continue to recover.
  • Held $2.9 billion in unrestricted cash and marketable securities as of March 31, 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.68B

Previous: $797M+110.9%
EPS (adj)

-$1.33

Previous: -$3.51+62.1%
RASM

$0.12

Previous: $0.08+59.1%
CASMex

$0.11

Previous: $0.11-2.9%
Fuel Cost per Gallon

$2.62

Previous: $1.79+46.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$288M

Previous: -$27M-966.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$431M

Previous: -$158M-172.8%
Net Income

-$143M

Previous: -$131M-9.2%
Operating Income

-$202M

Previous: -$161M-25.5%
Gross Profit

-$558M

Previous: $403M-238.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$628M

Previous: $1.08B-41.6%
Total Assets

$14.2B

Previous: $14.3B-0.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$5M

Previous: $12M-58.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Alaska Air · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.68B

Q1 2022+110.9%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alaska Air · $58M total across 1 segment · Q1 2022

  • Cargo and Other
    $58M+31.8%

Forward guidance

Alaska Air Group provided outlook for the second quarter ending June 30, 2022. Total revenue is expected to be up 5% to 8% versus 2019. Economic fuel cost per gallon is expected to be $3.25 to $3.30.

Tailwinds

  • Capacity (ASMs) % change versus 2019: Down 6% to 9%
  • Revenue passengers % change versus 2019: Down 10% to 12%
  • Passenger load factor: 85% to 88%
  • Total revenue % change versus 2019: Up 5% to 8%
  • Adjusted tax rate: ~24% to 25%

Headwinds

  • Cost per ASM excluding fuel and special items (CASMex) % change versus 2019: Up 16% to 19%
  • Economic fuel cost per gallon: $3.25 to $3.30
  • Non-operating expense: $7 million to $9 million
  • We recently reduced Q2 scheduled capacity in response to shortfalls in throughput from our pilot training department versus what was originally planned.
  • For this reason, coupled with our commitment to exit the Airbus A320 fleet on an accelerated timeline, as well as persistent high oil prices, we have reduced our planned capacity growth modestly as compared to previous expectations.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+8.5%

Q4 2015

Best reaction

-17.6%

Q3 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.9%-4.5%-5.7%
Q4 2025+4.2%+7.2%+7.6%
Q3 2025-6.1%-10.4%-15.2%
Q2 2025+0.9%-1.7%+11.4%
Q1 2025-10.1%-5.2%+10.0%
Q4 2024-2.1%+2.3%+1.9%
Q3 2024+4.1%+2.7%+11.3%
Q2 2024-8.0%-4.4%-14.1%
Q1 2024+5.4%+5.5%+1.3%
Q4 2023+2.7%+2.4%+7.9%
Q3 2023-2.0%-2.4%+12.6%
Q2 2023-10.3%-9.8%-21.0%
Q1 2023+1.7%-2.6%+2.0%
Q4 2022-0.1%+0.6%-7.3%
Q3 2022-2.0%+3.7%+11.5%
Q2 2022-1.5%-2.3%+4.7%
Q1 2022-3.6%-8.2%-21.5%
Q4 2021-0.1%+4.8%+10.1%
Q3 2021-6.0%-5.2%-7.9%
Q2 2021+1.1%+3.0%-5.6%
Q1 2021+0.6%+0.4%-1.1%
Q4 2020-7.7%-7.7%+23.9%
Q3 2020+4.7%-5.6%+20.2%
Q2 2020-3.4%-3.6%-2.4%
Q1 2020-3.3%+4.3%+47.1%
Q4 2019+2.4%-1.1%-18.9%
Q3 2019+3.9%+1.2%-0.2%
Q2 2019-1.0%-2.4%-11.7%
Q1 2019-0.3%+1.8%-0.3%
Q4 2018-0.4%+1.3%-2.1%
Q3 2018+0.6%+3.5%+13.6%
Q2 2018+7.7%+6.3%+9.7%
Q1 2018-0.2%+1.0%-10.7%
Q4 2017-0.2%-0.8%+0.4%
Q3 2017-17.6%-16.3%-17.6%
Q2 2017+1.0%-2.2%-13.3%
Q1 2017-7.1%-7.7%-5.3%
Q4 2016+4.6%+4.2%+2.7%
Q3 2016+1.5%-1.4%+8.2%
Q2 2016+1.7%+4.8%+5.6%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2015+8.5%
Q3 2015+5.8%
Q2 2015-2.3%
Q1 2015+6.2%
Q4 2014+5.6%
Q3 2014+7.3%
Q2 2014-7.9%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013-2.7%
Q3 2013+4.7%
Q2 2013+2.3%
Q1 2013-0.4%
Q4 2012-0.1%
Q3 2012-0.2%
Q2 2012+1.8%
Q1 2012-1.3%
Q4 2011-8.2%
Q3 2011+5.2%
Q2 2011-6.0%
Q1 2010+2.6%
Q1 2011-1.5%
Q4 2010-3.1%
Q4 2008-3.1%
Q3 2009-0.3%
Q3 2010-0.3%
Q2 2009+2.7%
Q4 2009+2.7%
Q2 2010+2.7%

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