NYSE$AGCO

AGCO Corp · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AGCO's fourth quarter results reflected the impact of challenging market conditions and higher warranty expenses.

AGCO reported net sales of approximately $2.5 billion for the fourth quarter of 2019, a decrease of approximately 3.0% compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. Reported net loss was $1.17 per share for the fourth quarter of 2019, and adjusted net income was $0.94 per share.

  • Reported fourth quarter regional sales results: Europe/Middle East (“EME”) 0.2%, North America 1.8%, South America (20.0)%, Asia/Pacific/Africa (“APA”) (13.3)%
  • Constant currency fourth quarter regional sales results: EME 3.0%, North America 1.6%, South America (14.6)%, APA (10.8)%
  • Fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share were negatively impacted by softer than anticipated market demand in EME, APA and South America; higher warranty expense; brand and product rationalization costs for grain and protein equipment and a higher effective tax rate
  • Warranty expense increased approximately $23 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 due primarily to field product improvement campaign costs to support new harvesting products

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.51B

Previous: $2.59B-3.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.94

Previous: $1.31-28.2%
Capital Expenditures

$85.3M

Previous: $64.8M+31.6%
Free Cash Flow

$423M

Previous: $535M-21.0%
Net Income

-$89.6M

Previous: $98.7M-190.8%
Operating Income

-$49.8M

Previous: $159M-131.3%
Gross Profit

$514M

Previous: $539M-4.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$433M

Previous: $326M+32.7%
Total Assets

$7.76B

Previous: $7.63B+1.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$8.4M

Previous: $13.3M-36.8%

Revenue & EPS history

AGCO · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.51B

Q4 2019-3%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

AGCO’s net sales for 2020 are expected to reach approximately $9.2 billion reflecting improved sales volumes and positive pricing. Gross and operating margins are expected to improve from 2019 levels, reflecting the positive impact of pricing and cost reduction efforts. Based on these assumptions, 2020 earnings per share is targeted in a range from $5.00 to $5.20.

Tailwinds

  • Improved sales volumes
  • Positive pricing
  • Gross margin improvement
  • Operating margin improvement
  • Cost reduction efforts

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+13.1%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-12.2%

Q2 2011

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.9%-3.3%-1.1%
Q4 2025+2.2%+11.6%+1.8%
Q3 2025-0.6%+0.6%-0.2%
Q1 2025+10.1%+11.2%+15.5%
Q4 2024-5.1%-6.9%-0.6%
Q3 2024-3.4%-6.1%-0.4%
Q2 2024-7.5%-12.2%-11.4%
Q1 2024-0.3%+4.4%-4.3%
Q4 2023-2.5%-4.9%-6.5%
Q3 2023+4.8%+6.8%+1.2%
Q2 2023-3.2%-2.6%-12.9%
Q1 2023+2.3%+1.9%-10.4%
Q4 2022-0.4%+2.6%+2.0%
Q3 2022-6.9%-2.6%+5.9%
Q2 2022+4.9%+1.6%+6.5%
Q1 2022+5.6%-4.3%+0.8%
Q4 2021+13.1%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2021-3.4%-1.4%-7.3%
Q2 2021+5.0%+6.7%+11.3%
Q1 2021-6.6%-2.3%-11.4%
Q4 2020+1.6%+3.3%+13.3%
Q3 2020+7.9%+13.2%+16.1%
Q2 2020+3.5%+7.1%+14.3%
Q1 2020-2.3%+3.0%+23.0%
Q4 2019-8.7%-8.0%-16.1%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.9%+2.6%
Q2 2019+0.8%-4.2%-10.2%
Q1 2019+6.8%+4.4%-5.0%
Q4 2018-2.3%-4.4%+0.9%
Q3 2018+8.1%+10.2%+12.8%
Q2 2018+2.2%+3.8%-0.5%
Q1 2018-5.5%-4.0%+1.5%
Q4 2017-2.0%-3.7%-6.5%
Q3 2017-2.8%-3.4%-0.9%
Q2 2017+0.2%+0.1%-6.8%
Q1 2017+1.3%-0.3%-0.2%
Q4 2016+1.6%+2.6%-6.2%
Q3 2016-3.3%-1.2%+9.3%
Q2 2016-0.7%-0.1%-2.4%
Q1 2016+0.2%
Q4 2015-7.8%
Q3 2015+9.5%
Q2 2015+6.0%
Q1 2015+6.5%
Q4 2014+6.5%
Q3 2014-0.7%
Q2 2014-5.2%
Q1 2014-1.9%
Q4 2013-4.2%
Q3 2013-8.8%
Q2 2013+4.2%
Q1 2013+1.1%
Q4 2012+3.6%
Q3 2012-1.2%
Q2 2012+10.9%
Q1 2012+5.3%
Q4 2008-0.5%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q3 2011+2.6%
Q2 2011-12.2%
Q1 2010+2.4%
Q1 2011+1.5%
Q4 2010+3.7%
Q3 2009+0.2%
Q3 2010+0.2%
Q2 2009-1.3%
Q2 2010-1.3%
Q4 2009-1.3%

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