NASDAQ$VCEL

Vericel Corporation · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fourth quarter and full-year 2022 financial results and provided full-year 2023 financial guidance.

Vericel Corporation reported a record fourth quarter with total revenue of $52.7 million and a 31% net income growth. The company also provided full-year 2023 total revenue guidance of $180 to $188 million, with MACI revenue of $152 to $156 million.

  • Record quarterly total revenue of $52.7 million.
  • Fourth-quarter MACI revenue growth of 24% compared to the prior year and approximately 50% sequential growth versus the prior quarter, representing the highest quarterly revenue since the launch of MACI.
  • Fourth-quarter net income growth of 31% compared to the prior year.
  • 10th straight quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$52.7M

Previous: $47.6M+10.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.12

Previous: $0.09+33.3%
Gross Margin

73.0%

Previous: 72.0%+1.4%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

28.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$1.13M

Previous: $991K+13.5%
Free Cash Flow

$5.85M

Previous: $9.56M-38.8%
Net Income

$5.9M

Previous: $4.5M+31.1%
Operating Income

$6.09M

Previous: $4.14M+46.9%
Gross Profit

$38.2M

Previous: $34M+12.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$51.1M

Previous: $68.3M-25.3%
Total Assets

$273M

Previous: $244M+12.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.74M

Previous: $7.84M-1.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Vericel · Revenue · Quarterly

$52.7M

Q4 2022+10.7%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Vericel · $45.6M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • MACI
    $37.6M+21.3%
  • Epicel
    $7.4M+1.4%
  • NexoBrid
    $600K+200.0%

Forward guidance

Total net revenue for 2023 is expected to be in the range of $180 to $188 million, with MACI revenue expected to be in the range of $152 to $156 million. Total Burn Care revenue, which includes Epicel and NexoBrid, is expected to be in the range of $28 to $32 million. Gross margin is expected to be in the high-60% range, and adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be in the mid-teens % range.

Tailwinds

  • Total net revenue for 2023 expected to be in the range of $180 to $188 million
  • MACI revenue expected to be in the range of $152 to $156 million
  • Total Burn Care revenue, which includes Epicel and NexoBrid, expected to be in the range of $28 to $32 million
  • Gross margin expected to be in the high-60% range
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be in the mid-teens % range

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

30 / 64 earnings

Positive

+48.1%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-30.0%

Q2 2013

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.6%-10.4%-1.4%
Q4 2025+1.7%-7.3%-20.9%
Q3 2025+4.6%+10.3%-2.6%
Q1 2025+3.2%+7.8%+7.0%
Q4 2024-6.1%-3.2%-15.8%
Q3 2024+12.4%+16.3%+17.3%
Q2 2024-5.7%-7.5%+2.2%
Q1 2024-1.8%-2.0%-10.4%
Q4 2023-6.5%-7.0%+8.8%
Q3 2023-11.2%-7.0%-7.3%
Q2 2023-8.9%-9.2%-3.5%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.8%+6.5%
Q4 2022+6.9%+6.6%+1.6%
Q3 2022-2.8%+0.2%-0.3%
Q2 2022-4.3%-6.2%-28.7%
Q1 2022-9.1%-18.9%-13.1%
Q4 2021+21.9%+26.4%+11.2%
Q3 2021-2.7%-3.0%-10.6%
Q2 2021-2.1%-4.5%+9.0%
Q1 2021-10.2%-15.9%-5.8%
Q4 2020+0.4%+1.7%+9.0%
Q3 2020+6.0%+17.7%+18.5%
Q2 2020-9.8%-5.0%-5.5%
Q1 2020+5.6%+8.3%+3.9%
Q4 2019-20.4%-18.3%-46.9%
Q3 2019+15.3%+15.7%+12.9%
Q2 2019+2.4%+1.9%-8.3%
Q1 2019-2.5%-3.6%-16.8%
Q4 2018-7.4%-3.5%-13.6%
Q3 2018+48.1%+39.6%+53.3%
Q2 2018+25.6%+27.1%+36.5%
Q1 2018+6.0%+5.6%+0.4%
Q4 2017+40.1%+38.3%+33.5%
Q3 2017-7.0%-5.8%+14.0%
Q2 2017+11.7%+21.7%+48.3%
Q1 2017+0.0%+3.9%+5.9%
Q4 2016-1.7%+0.0%-6.9%
Q3 2016-2.3%+4.7%+9.3%
Q2 2016-5.5%-7.7%-5.5%
Q1 2016+11.5%
Q4 2015+4.8%
Q3 2015-9.7%
Q2 2015+4.3%
Q1 2015-2.5%
Q4 2014+2.9%
Q3 2014+3.6%
Q2 2014-0.3%
Q1 2014+0.5%
Q4 2013-12.7%
Q3 2013-2.2%
Q2 2013-30.0%
Q1 2013+0.0%
Q4 2012-6.3%
Q3 2012-4.0%
Q2 2012-6.5%
Q1 2012-0.8%
Q4 2011+1.0%
Q3 2011+3.1%
Q2 2011+8.3%
Q1 2011+4.7%
Q4 2009+4.7%
Q3 2010+35.3%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q1 2010+1.3%

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