NASDAQ$SHOP

Shopify Inc. · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Shopify delivered strong Q4 results, achieving 31% YoY revenue growth and expanding free cash flow margin to 22%. Operating income grew 61% YoY, and GMV reached $94.46 billion, marking its highest growth rate in three years. Net income more than doubled compared to the previous year, reflecting improved profitability.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.81B

No prior period
EPS (adj)

$0.44

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$3.67M

No prior period
Net Income

$1.29B

No prior period
Operating Income

$465M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$1.35B

No prior period
R&D Expense

$348M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Shopify · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.81B

Q4 2024
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Shopify · $1.74B total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Merchant Solutions
    $1.34B+29.8%
  • Subscription Solutions
    $400M+13.9%

Forward guidance

Shopify expects Q1 2025 revenue growth in the mid-20% range YoY, with gross profit growth in the low-20% range. Operating expenses are forecasted at 41-42% of revenue, and free cash flow margin is expected to be in the mid-teens.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue growth expected in the mid-20% range YoY.
  • Gross profit dollars forecasted to grow in the low-20% range.
  • Merchant momentum from Q4 expected to continue into Q1.
  • Nine consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow provide financial flexibility.
  • Expanding international and offline revenue segments.

Headwinds

  • Q1 historically experiences seasonally lower GMV.
  • Operating expenses projected at 41-42% of revenue.
  • Stock-based compensation expected to be $120 million.
  • Macroeconomic conditions could impact consumer spending.
  • Competition in ecommerce space remains high.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+5.8%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

22 / 41 earnings

Positive

+34.1%

Q1 2023

Best reaction

-25.8%

Q4 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.4%-13.6%-9.1%
Q4 2025-6.7%-11.4%-3.4%
Q3 2025-6.8%-11.9%-6.1%
Q2 2025+21.9%+16.1%+15.6%
Q1 2025-0.6%+13.9%+17.9%
Q4 2024+3.1%+7.0%-24.4%
Q3 2023+26.0%+26.4%+51.4%
Q2 2023-12.5%-14.6%-1.1%
Q1 2023+34.1%+38.1%+26.0%
Q4 2022-10.4%-13.0%-10.8%
Q3 2022+17.7%+19.7%+26.6%
Q2 2022+13.8%+15.5%+2.8%
Q1 2022-22.2%-30.9%-27.2%
Q4 2021-25.8%-26.2%-12.3%
Q3 2021+7.8%+8.5%+15.8%
Q2 2021-1.9%-1.1%-1.5%
Q1 2021+6.6%-3.0%+7.4%
Q4 2020-6.1%-6.3%-24.0%
Q3 2020-9.9%-8.3%+0.7%
Q2 2020+6.5%+10.0%+5.8%
Q1 2020+5.3%+9.4%+6.1%
Q4 2019+8.2%+7.8%-20.7%
Q3 2019-1.8%-2.5%+4.9%
Q2 2019+4.5%+4.7%+21.2%
Q1 2019+8.6%+16.9%+22.7%
Q4 2018-0.7%+2.9%+20.2%
Q3 2018+8.7%+5.6%+10.3%
Q2 2018-7.9%-4.2%-2.2%
Q1 2018-6.6%+1.9%+10.8%
Q4 2017-0.0%+3.8%+7.0%
Q3 2017-12.0%-9.7%-5.1%
Q2 2017+6.5%+4.2%+20.1%
Q1 2017+5.8%+10.7%+20.9%
Q4 2016+8.8%+9.8%+19.5%
Q3 2016-0.9%-1.5%-4.2%
Q2 2016+9.9%+14.3%+26.5%
Q1 2016-7.2%
Q4 2015+0.4%
Q3 2015+0.6%
Q2 2015+9.5%
Q1 2015-7.4%
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014

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