NASDAQ$PENN

Penn National Gaming Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Penn National's financial performance in Q4 2019 resulted in revenues of $1.34 billion and an adjusted EBITDAR of $399.4 million.

Penn National Gaming reported Q4 revenues of $1.34 billion, a net loss of $92.9 million, adjusted EBITDA of $304.0 million, and adjusted EBITDAR of $399.4 million. The company reduced traditional debt by approximately $70 million during the quarter and initiated a 2020 full-year adjusted EBITDAR guidance range of $1.67 billion to $1.70 billion.

  • Revenues increased to $1.34 billion, up $185.9 million year-over-year.
  • Net loss was $92.9 million, driven by $173.1 million in impairment losses.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $304.0 million, a decrease of $16.1 million year-over-year.
  • Adjusted EBITDAR was $399.4 million, exceeding guidance for the fourth quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.34B

Previous: $1.16B+16.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.35

Previous: -$0.37+194.6%
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA

$399M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

29.8%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$53.9M

Previous: $90.4M-40.4%
Free Cash Flow

$131M

Previous: -$38.6M+438.5%
Net Income

-$92.9M

Previous: -$42M-121.0%
Operating Income

$11.3M

Previous: $124M-90.9%
Gross Profit

$586M

Previous: $492M+19.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$437M

Previous: $480M-8.8%
Total Assets

$14.2B

Previous: $11B+29.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.5M

Previous: $3.19M+41.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Penn National · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.34B

Q4 2019+16.1%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Penn National · $1.34B total across 5 segments · Q4 2019

  • Northeast
    $621M
  • Midwest
    $279M
  • South
    $268M
  • West
    $158M
  • Other
    $15.6M

Forward guidance

The Company’s full year 2020 Adjusted EBITDAR range reflects the anticipated opening of a competitor’s expansion in Black Hawk, Colorado in late Q1-20/early Q2-20. Guidance excludes any impact related to the Barstool Sports transaction.

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDAR range of $1.67 billion to $1.70 billion, which includes costs associated with the launch of our sports betting app
  • Corporate overhead expenses of $94 million, which is net of allocations to our properties
  • Cash payments to our REIT Landlords under Triple Net Leases (which continue to be fully tax deductible) in the range of $901 million to $905 million. The low end of the range reflects no escalated rent, while the high end assumes full escalated rent
  • Maintenance capital expenditures of $199 million
  • Project capital expenditures for Hollywood Casino York of $57 million

Headwinds

  • Project capital expenditures for Hollywood Casino Morgantown of $70 million
  • Cash interest on traditional debt of $105 million
  • Cash taxes of $60 million
  • A diluted share count of approximately 118 million
  • The Company assumes there will be no significant changes in applicable legislation, regulatory environment, world events, weather, recent consumer trends, economic conditions, oil prices, competitive landscape (other than listed above) or other circumstances beyond our control that may adversely affect the Company’s results of operations.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.4%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

28 / 69 earnings

Positive

+27.6%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-17.3%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.0%-6.8%+4.4%
Q4 2025+17.0%+19.1%+9.8%
Q3 2025-10.5%-5.3%-15.5%
Q2 2025+1.0%+4.0%+10.2%
Q1 2025-2.8%+2.9%-0.8%
Q4 2024-0.1%-3.2%-17.1%
Q3 2024+6.6%+12.0%+7.9%
Q2 2024+5.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q1 2024-8.0%-3.2%+6.4%
Q4 2023-17.3%-23.2%-21.6%
Q3 2023+15.9%+20.4%+30.5%
Q2 2023+1.2%+0.4%-10.8%
Q1 2023-12.2%-12.4%-12.3%
Q4 2022-4.2%-4.1%-13.1%
Q3 2022-0.4%+1.7%+6.7%
Q2 2022-6.7%-6.8%-14.5%
Q1 2022-11.4%-20.9%-15.0%
Q4 2021-1.5%+5.3%+1.5%
Q3 2021-15.1%-18.9%-34.0%
Q2 2021+8.5%+5.9%+23.3%
Q1 2021-5.2%-9.1%-11.9%
Q4 2020+18.2%+7.1%-0.8%
Q3 2020-4.6%-0.9%+29.5%
Q2 2020+27.6%+21.4%+41.1%
Q1 2020+16.9%+12.6%+128.7%
Q4 2019+6.4%+14.1%-25.9%
Q3 2019-1.8%+0.9%+5.4%
Q2 2019-3.0%-5.8%-1.8%
Q1 2019-4.9%-10.9%-10.4%
Q4 2018-3.1%-3.6%-11.9%
Q3 2018-4.4%-8.4%-8.9%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.2%+1.1%
Q1 2018+14.1%+16.5%+31.2%
Q4 2017-6.4%-5.4%-7.5%
Q3 2017+0.5%+2.8%+8.4%
Q2 2017-5.5%-4.5%-1.6%
Q1 2017-2.5%-2.4%+5.1%
Q4 2016+3.7%+2.9%+7.9%
Q3 2016-1.1%-2.6%+5.9%
Q2 2016+5.1%+2.9%+0.8%
Q1 2016-2.3%
Q4 2015-0.4%
Q3 2015+3.9%
Q2 2015-1.9%
Q1 2015+3.1%
Q4 2014-1.9%
Q3 2014+4.3%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014-12.6%
Q4 2013+8.0%
Q3 2013+3.6%
Q2 2013-8.2%
Q1 2013+3.6%
Q4 2012+5.0%
Q3 2012-0.9%
Q2 2012-2.4%
Q1 2012-0.5%
Q4 2011+1.6%
Q3 2011-2.9%
Q2 2011-5.6%
Q1 2010-0.5%
Q1 2011+2.0%
Q4 2008+4.5%
Q4 2010+4.5%
Q3 2010+1.4%
Q3 2009+1.4%
Q2 2010-0.9%
Q2 2009-0.9%
Q4 2009-0.9%

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