NASDAQ$ASTH

Astrana Health Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. reported consolidated financial results with revenue increase, net income growth, and raised full-year guidance.

ApolloMed reported a strong Q3 2020 with a 15% increase in total revenue to $180.1 million and a 137% increase in net income to $25.4 million. Net income attributable to ApolloMed increased to $16.7 million. The company also raised its full-year 2020 net income, EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA guidance due to a net shared savings settlement of $13.3 million.

  • Q3 total revenue increased by 15% year-over-year to $180.1 million.
  • Q3 net income increased by 137% year-over-year to $25.4 million.
  • Net income attributable to ApolloMed increased to $16.7 million.
  • Full-year 2020 net income, EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA guidance were raised.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$180M

Previous: $156M+15.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.46

Previous: $0.10+360.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$53.4M

Previous: $22.8M+134.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$553K

Previous: -$807K+31.4%
Free Cash Flow

$16.2M

Previous: $2.9M+457.7%
Net Income

$16.7M

Previous: $3.7M+351.2%
Operating Income

$37.4M

Previous: $10.1M+271.1%
Gross Profit

$58.3M

Previous: $24.9M+133.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$166M

Previous: $230M-27.9%
Total Assets

$814M

Previous: $750M+8.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$648K

Previous: $330K+96.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Astrana Health · Revenue · Quarterly

$180M

Q3 2020+15.4%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 7 of 12 quarters(58%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

ApolloMed raised its full-year 2020 net income guidance from a range of $100.0 million to $110.0 million to a range of $110.0 million to $120.0 million. The company expects total revenue between $665.0 million and $675.0 million.

Tailwinds

  • Maintaining total revenue between $665.0 million and $675.0 million.
  • Raising net income from a range of $100.0 million to $110.0 million to a range of $110.0 million to $120.0 million.
  • Raising EBITDA from a range of $155.0 million to $167.0 million to a range of $182.0 million to $194.0 million.
  • Raising adjusted EBITDA from a range of $75.0 million to $90.0 million to a range of $97.0 million to $112.0 million.
  • Anticipate ending 2020 on a strong note as a result of the additional revenue contributions from the acquisitions made last year as well as organic capitation revenue growth.

Headwinds

  • Global pandemic continuing to cast a shadow over 2020
  • COVID-19 has had a devastating impact on the individuals and families within our communities.
  • Flu season
  • There can be no assurance that actual amounts will not be materially higher or lower than these expectations.
  • Actual results may also vary materially from forward-looking statements due to risks, uncertainties and other factors, known and unknown.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.1%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

23 / 57 earnings

Positive

+83.3%

Q3 2011

Best reaction

-40.5%

Q2 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025+29.4%+22.5%+20.6%
Q3 2025-23.4%-29.4%-33.8%
Q1 2025-11.1%-20.8%-24.5%
Q4 2024-26.8%+5.0%+16.1%
Q3 2024-21.1%-27.9%-30.4%
Q2 2024-1.4%-1.8%+0.1%
Q1 2024-0.7%+1.5%+8.0%
Q4 2023+2.3%+1.8%-1.9%
Q3 2023+9.3%+2.9%+13.4%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.5%-17.4%
Q1 2023+5.4%+7.0%-0.8%
Q4 2022+6.9%+5.2%+15.2%
Q3 2022+8.4%+8.9%-14.5%
Q2 2022-4.3%-11.0%-29.3%
Q1 2022-0.5%-5.4%-26.4%
Q4 2021-2.0%-11.0%-7.0%
Q3 2021+14.7%+30.5%+0.8%
Q2 2021-11.8%-10.7%-12.9%
Q1 2021+4.5%+4.7%+10.9%
Q4 2020+9.1%+8.8%+8.3%
Q3 2020-1.2%-1.6%+0.5%
Q2 2020+1.8%+2.4%+7.9%
Q1 2020-10.4%-11.6%+13.1%
Q4 2019-12.9%-24.0%+7.0%
Q3 2019-2.9%-0.9%+25.0%
Q2 2019-5.0%+4.8%+31.1%
Q1 2019-1.2%-4.3%-29.7%
Q4 2018-6.4%-8.3%-6.9%
Q3 2018+26.3%+4.0%-4.6%
Q2 2018-13.7%-23.3%-32.2%
Q4 2017+10.8%-6.3%+2.1%
Q1 2018+10.8%-6.3%+2.1%
Q3 2017+3.9%+3.9%+140.0%
Q2 2017+0.0%+0.0%-10.5%
Q1 2017+0.0%+6.7%+36.7%
Q1 2016+4.0%+4.0%+0.0%
Q3 2016-4.8%
Q2 2016-12.9%
Q1 2015-6.5%
Q3 2015-3.2%
Q2 2015+0.0%
Q2 2014+15.6%
Q4 2013
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013+13.5%
Q1 2013-13.3%
Q4 2012-2.2%
Q3 2012-9.1%
Q2 2012-40.5%
Q1 2012+0.0%
Q4 2011
Q3 2011+83.3%
Q2 2011+0.5%
Q1 2011-0.5%
Q4 2010-3.9%
Q3 2010+19.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q1 2010-2.1%
Q4 2009+9.9%

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