NASDAQ$AMSF

Amerisafe Inc · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Amerisafe's first quarter of 2021 resulted in a net combined ratio of 84.6%.

AMERISAFE reported a strong first quarter in 2021, with a net income of $19.312 million and a net combined ratio of 84.6%. The company benefited from disciplined underwriting, competitive pricing, slight policy growth, and favorable case loss development from prior accident years.

  • Net income increased by 78.8% to $19.312 million compared to Q1 2020.
  • Diluted earnings per share increased by 76.8% to $0.99 compared to Q1 2020.
  • The net combined ratio was 84.6%, compared to 83.5% in the first quarter of 2020.
  • Book value per share increased to $23.16, a 2.3% increase year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$83.4M

Previous: $79.2M+5.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.76

Previous: $0.88-13.6%
Net Combined Ratio

84.6%

Previous: 83.5%+1.3%
Return on Average Equity

17.4%

Previous: 10.0%+74.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$390K

Previous: -$221K-76.5%
Free Cash Flow

$18.9M

Previous: $10.6M+78.9%
Net Income

$19.3M

Previous: $10.8M+78.8%
Operating Income

$36.4M

Previous: $27.6M+31.8%
Gross Profit

$42.5M

Previous: $34.5M+23.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$33.1M

Previous: $79.5M-58.4%
Total Assets

$1.49B

Previous: $1.52B-1.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$571K

Previous: $760K-24.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Amerisafe · Revenue · Quarterly

$83.4M

Q1 2021+5.3%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company did not provide specific financial guidance in the press release. However, they expressed optimism about the potential for vaccination rollout to strengthen the economy and add normalcy to daily living.

Tailwinds

  • Optimistic about the potential for vaccination rollout to strengthen the economy.
  • Expect vaccination rollout to bring some normalcy back to daily living.
  • Company reported an 84.6% combined ratio in the quarter.
  • Disciplined underwriting contributed to the positive results.
  • Favorable case loss development from prior accident years contributed to the positive results.

Headwinds

  • The soft market continued in the quarter.
  • Competition remained robust.
  • Loss costs continued to decline.
  • Net investment income decreased 15.0% due to lower investment yields on fixed-income securities.
  • Voluntary premiums written in the quarter were lower by $2.4 million, or 3.0%, compared with the first quarter of 2020.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

35 / 66 earnings

Positive

+13.7%

Q4 2012

Best reaction

-12.6%

Q4 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.8%+5.9%+3.6%
Q4 2025-8.9%-7.0%-11.3%
Q3 2025+0.6%+1.0%+2.7%
Q2 2025-0.8%-0.8%-4.0%
Q1 2025-1.4%+1.3%+2.1%
Q4 2024-0.1%+0.2%+3.6%
Q3 2024+10.6%+8.1%+15.6%
Q2 2024-5.5%-7.0%-2.1%
Q1 2024-10.0%-11.6%-12.4%
Q4 2023+1.3%+4.2%-0.1%
Q3 2023-1.8%-2.2%-0.6%
Q2 2023-5.7%-5.6%-8.3%
Q1 2023+4.7%+5.5%-2.5%
Q4 2022-2.1%-2.9%-12.0%
Q3 2022+8.0%+9.2%+7.6%
Q2 2022-5.7%-6.1%+2.0%
Q1 2022+7.0%+3.7%+10.0%
Q4 2021-12.6%-12.2%-6.7%
Q3 2021+2.2%+5.5%-6.9%
Q2 2021+0.6%+1.5%+1.4%
Q1 2021-0.4%+3.1%+5.1%
Q4 2020+1.1%-0.4%+10.0%
Q3 2020+1.6%+3.4%-3.5%
Q2 2020-1.0%-1.3%+4.4%
Q1 2020-0.4%-2.6%-4.0%
Q4 2019+8.9%+6.7%-24.2%
Q3 2019+7.5%+9.9%+5.7%
Q2 2019-0.1%-2.0%+4.7%
Q1 2019+1.0%+2.7%+0.6%
Q4 2018+2.0%-0.1%-4.0%
Q3 2018+5.5%+5.6%+1.6%
Q2 2018+1.1%-0.7%+1.6%
Q1 2018+8.5%+4.9%+6.0%
Q4 2017-0.9%-4.5%-5.4%
Q3 2017+5.7%+6.0%+8.1%
Q2 2017+2.9%+1.2%-5.8%
Q1 2017-11.7%-12.2%-21.0%
Q4 2016+3.9%-0.8%-2.4%
Q3 2016+2.5%-0.7%+16.0%
Q2 2016-6.4%-10.7%-5.6%
Q1 2016+5.8%
Q4 2015+1.1%
Q3 2015+5.3%
Q2 2015+6.9%
Q1 2015-2.8%
Q4 2014-3.5%
Q3 2014-1.5%
Q2 2014+0.8%
Q1 2014-2.2%
Q4 2013+12.0%
Q3 2013-0.6%
Q2 2013-5.7%
Q1 2013-1.1%
Q4 2012+13.7%
Q3 2012-1.2%
Q2 2012+3.9%
Q1 2011+1.0%
Q1 2012+2.9%
Q4 2009+0.1%
Q4 2011+0.1%
Q4 2010+0.1%
Q3 2010-0.9%
Q3 2011-0.9%
Q2 2010-0.7%
Q2 2011-0.7%
Q1 2010-0.7%

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