NASDAQ$AMSF

Amerisafe Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AMERISAFE reported first quarter results with a net combined ratio of 83.5%.

AMERISAFE reported a net combined ratio of 83.5% for the first quarter of 2020. The company's net income was $10.8 million, or $0.56 per diluted share, compared to $19.4 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, for the same period in 2019. Operating net income was $16.939 million, or $0.88 per diluted share.

  • AMERISAFE produced a net combined ratio of 83.5% in the first quarter.
  • Gross premiums written decreased by 6.5% compared to the first quarter of 2019, driven by lower voluntary premiums.
  • The company experienced favorable net loss development for prior accident years, reducing loss and loss adjustment expenses by $13.6 million.
  • Net unrealized losses on equity investments were $8.8 million, decreasing overall net income by $0.36 per share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$79.2M

Previous: $95.2M-16.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.88

Previous: $0.91-3.3%
Net Combined Ratio

83.5%

Previous: 84.0%-0.6%
Return on Average Equity

10.0%

Previous: 18.5%-45.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$221K

Previous: -$22K-904.5%
Free Cash Flow

$10.6M

Previous: $19.4M-45.4%
Net Income

$10.8M

Previous: $19.4M-44.3%
Operating Income

$27.6M

Previous: $37.5M-26.3%
Gross Profit

$34.5M

Previous: $44.5M-22.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$79.5M

Previous: $34.9M+127.9%
Total Assets

$1.52B

Previous: $1.56B-2.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$760K

Previous: $565K+34.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Amerisafe · Revenue · Quarterly

$79.2M

Q1 2020-16.8%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Premiums in future periods will depend on the ongoing economic impact of COVID-19. Investment income may decline, and the market value of investment securities may decrease, depending on the ongoing economic impact.

Tailwinds

  • AMERISAFE's employees' dedication and professionalism provided unwavering service to policyholders, agents and injured workers.
  • The company is conducting business with no disruption to operations.
  • The company has communicated with all critical third-party vendors to confirm continuity of services.
  • All claims reporting continues to be reported via telephone as per procedures, pre-COVID-19.
  • The company is working and communicating with customers utilizing virtual meeting tools along with access via phone, email and through the website.

Headwinds

  • There is some uncertainty about the impact to policyholders from COVID-19 and their business operations, including payrolls, which is a primary source of premium revenue for AMERISAFE.
  • Premiums in future periods will depend on the ongoing economic impact of COVID-19.
  • Investment income may decline, depending on the ongoing economic impact.
  • The market value of investment securities may decrease, depending on the ongoing economic impact.
  • Some policyholders have ceased normal operations due to government mandates.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

35 / 66 earnings

Positive

+13.7%

Q4 2012

Best reaction

-12.6%

Q4 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.8%+5.9%+3.6%
Q4 2025-8.9%-7.0%-11.3%
Q3 2025+0.6%+1.0%+2.7%
Q2 2025-0.8%-0.8%-4.0%
Q1 2025-1.4%+1.3%+2.1%
Q4 2024-0.1%+0.2%+3.6%
Q3 2024+10.6%+8.1%+15.6%
Q2 2024-5.5%-7.0%-2.1%
Q1 2024-10.0%-11.6%-12.4%
Q4 2023+1.3%+4.2%-0.1%
Q3 2023-1.8%-2.2%-0.6%
Q2 2023-5.7%-5.6%-8.3%
Q1 2023+4.7%+5.5%-2.5%
Q4 2022-2.1%-2.9%-12.0%
Q3 2022+8.0%+9.2%+7.6%
Q2 2022-5.7%-6.1%+2.0%
Q1 2022+7.0%+3.7%+10.0%
Q4 2021-12.6%-12.2%-6.7%
Q3 2021+2.2%+5.5%-6.9%
Q2 2021+0.6%+1.5%+1.4%
Q1 2021-0.4%+3.1%+5.1%
Q4 2020+1.1%-0.4%+10.0%
Q3 2020+1.6%+3.4%-3.5%
Q2 2020-1.0%-1.3%+4.4%
Q1 2020-0.4%-2.6%-4.0%
Q4 2019+8.9%+6.7%-24.2%
Q3 2019+7.5%+9.9%+5.7%
Q2 2019-0.1%-2.0%+4.7%
Q1 2019+1.0%+2.7%+0.6%
Q4 2018+2.0%-0.1%-4.0%
Q3 2018+5.5%+5.6%+1.6%
Q2 2018+1.1%-0.7%+1.6%
Q1 2018+8.5%+4.9%+6.0%
Q4 2017-0.9%-4.5%-5.4%
Q3 2017+5.7%+6.0%+8.1%
Q2 2017+2.9%+1.2%-5.8%
Q1 2017-11.7%-12.2%-21.0%
Q4 2016+3.9%-0.8%-2.4%
Q3 2016+2.5%-0.7%+16.0%
Q2 2016-6.4%-10.7%-5.6%
Q1 2016+5.8%
Q4 2015+1.1%
Q3 2015+5.3%
Q2 2015+6.9%
Q1 2015-2.8%
Q4 2014-3.5%
Q3 2014-1.5%
Q2 2014+0.8%
Q1 2014-2.2%
Q4 2013+12.0%
Q3 2013-0.6%
Q2 2013-5.7%
Q1 2013-1.1%
Q4 2012+13.7%
Q3 2012-1.2%
Q2 2012+3.9%
Q1 2011+1.0%
Q1 2012+2.9%
Q4 2009+0.1%
Q4 2011+0.1%
Q4 2010+0.1%
Q3 2010-0.9%
Q3 2011-0.9%
Q2 2010-0.7%
Q2 2011-0.7%
Q1 2010-0.7%

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