NYSE$TDG

Transdigm Group Incorporated · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported an increase in net sales, income from continuing operations, and adjusted earnings per share compared to the prior year's quarter.

TransDigm Group reported strong Q4 2022 results with an 18% increase in net sales, a 27% increase in income from continuing operations, and a 29% increase in adjusted earnings per share. The company's performance was driven by the recovery of the commercial aerospace industry and a focus on value drivers and cost structure.

  • Net sales increased by 18% to $1,510 million.
  • Income from continuing operations increased by 27% to $266 million.
  • Adjusted earnings per share increased by 29% to $5.50.
  • EBITDA As Defined increased by 18% to $752 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.51B

Previous: $1.28B+18.1%
EPS (adj)

$5.50

Previous: $4.25+29.4%
Organic Sales Growth

16.4%

Previous: 10.0%+64.0%
Capital Expenditures

$33M

Previous: $25M+32.0%
Free Cash Flow

$240M

Previous: $264M-9.1%
Net Income

$266M

Previous: $209M+27.3%
Operating Income

$641M

Previous: $535M+19.8%
Gross Profit

$885M

Previous: $725M+22.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$3B

Previous: $4.79B-37.3%
Total Assets

$0.00

Previous: $19.3B-100.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$38M

Previous: $24M+58.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Transdigm · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.51B

Q4 2022+18.1%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

TransDigm expects fiscal 2023 net sales to be in the range of $5,990 million to $6,190 million, net income from continuing operations to be in the range of $1,036 million to $1,116 million, earnings per share from continuing operations to be in the range of $17.45 to $18.85, EBITDA As Defined to be in the range of $2,995 million to $3,095 million, and adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $20.68 to $22.08.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales are anticipated to be in the range of $5,990 million to $6,190 million compared with $5,429 million in fiscal 2022.
  • Net income from continuing operations is anticipated to be in the range of $1,036 million to $1,116 million compared with $866 million in fiscal 2022.
  • Earnings per share from continuing operations is expected to be in the range of $17.45 to $18.85 per share based upon weighted average shares outstanding of 57.1 million shares compared with $13.38 per share in fiscal 2022.
  • EBITDA As Defined is anticipated to be in the range of $2,995 million to $3,095 million compared with $2,646 million in fiscal 2022 (corresponding to an EBITDA As Defined margin guide of approximately 50% for fiscal 2023).
  • Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be in the range of $20.68 to $22.08 per share compared with $17.14 per share in fiscal 2022.

Headwinds

  • Commercial aftermarket revenue growth in the mid-teens percentage range.
  • Commercial OEM revenue growth in the mid-teens percentage range.
  • Defense revenue growth in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range.
  • The Company will continue to monitor the ongoing uncertainty across the broader global economy
  • The Company will continue to monitor the ongoing uncertainty within the commercial aerospace market as this sector continues to recover, which could lead to revisions in our guidance for fiscal 2023.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

35 / 66 earnings

Positive

+16.5%

Q3 2019

Best reaction

-11.9%

Q3 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+5.1%+5.6%+6.7%
Q1 2026-9.3%-10.4%-9.8%
Q4 2025+1.0%+3.2%+0.1%
Q3 2025-11.9%-13.6%-20.3%
Q2 2025-5.6%-6.7%-1.9%
Q1 2025-3.3%-1.9%-0.6%
Q4 2024-2.3%-2.0%-7.5%
Q3 2024-0.6%+3.0%+9.9%
Q2 2024+1.0%+0.7%+2.5%
Q1 2024-2.4%-2.2%+1.6%
Q4 2023+10.9%+11.3%+9.9%
Q3 2023-4.8%-4.5%-2.9%
Q2 2023+4.9%+3.0%+4.5%
Q1 2023+4.7%+1.4%+2.9%
Q4 2022+7.5%+6.0%+4.6%
Q3 2022+3.9%+5.5%-4.0%
Q2 2022+4.6%+3.3%+11.4%
Q1 2022+2.7%+0.8%+0.1%
Q4 2021+0.8%-3.3%-11.8%
Q3 2021-0.7%-3.6%-4.8%
Q2 2021-3.8%-0.7%+9.7%
Q1 2021-3.4%-3.9%-0.5%
Q4 2020+1.1%+3.1%+7.3%
Q3 2020+8.2%+9.0%+13.3%
Q2 2020-6.7%+3.0%+40.7%
Q1 2020-4.0%-2.7%-17.8%
Q4 2019+1.3%-0.9%+1.3%
Q3 2019+16.5%+18.1%+15.5%
Q2 2019+1.3%-0.3%-1.4%
Q1 2019+4.3%+5.7%+6.2%
Q4 2018+3.8%+3.0%+0.2%
Q3 2018-3.1%-3.2%-4.1%
Q2 2018-0.5%+0.7%+4.2%
Q1 2018-1.6%-4.8%-3.7%
Q4 2017-6.3%-5.9%-3.6%
Q3 2017-2.3%-3.5%-10.8%
Q2 2017-4.0%-4.6%+7.1%
Q1 2017+7.1%+9.6%+4.6%
Q4 2016-4.9%-8.2%-7.9%
Q3 2016+3.1%+1.5%+3.4%
Q2 2016+9.5%
Q1 2016-10.1%
Q4 2015+5.0%
Q3 2015+4.1%
Q2 2015-0.1%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014+3.3%
Q3 2014+1.5%
Q2 2014-2.3%
Q1 2014+5.1%
Q4 2013-0.5%
Q3 2013-3.4%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+1.5%
Q4 2012+3.5%
Q3 2012+1.2%
Q2 2012-1.4%
Q1 2012+2.0%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q3 2011+2.3%
Q2 2011+0.7%
Q1 2011+1.5%
Q4 2010+2.9%
Q3 2010-1.3%
Q2 2010+3.7%
Q1 2009-0.8%

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