NYSE$PGR

Progressive Corp · Q2 2025 earnings

Q2 2025 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Progressive reported Q2 2025 total revenues of $22.0B with net income of $3.18B and diluted EPS of $5.40.

Second-quarter total revenues rose 21% year over year to $22.0 billion as net premiums earned reached $20.3 billion. Net income was $3.18 billion with diluted EPS of $5.40 versus $2.48 a year ago; the combined ratio improved on favorable underwriting. Net realized gains on securities and higher investment income supplemented underwriting profit.

  • Q2 total revenues $22.0B (+21% YoY); net premiums earned $20.3B.
  • Net income $3.18B; diluted EPS $5.40 (+117% YoY).
  • Underwriting margin benefited from premium growth and loss-ratio discipline.
  • Investment income and securities gains added to total return.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$22B

Previous: $18.1B+21.3%
EPS (adj)

$5.40

Previous: $2.48+117.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$161M

Previous: -$118M-36.3%
Free Cash Flow

$3.01B

Previous: $1.34B+124.8%
Net Income

$3.18B

Previous: $1.46B+117.7%
Operating Income

$4.2B

Previous: $2.05B+104.6%
Gross Profit

$6.89B

Previous: $4.23B+62.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$125M

Previous: $90.2M+38.6%
Total Assets

$115B

Previous: $97.9B+18.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Progressive · Revenue · Quarterly

$22B

Q2 2025+21.3%vs Q2 2024
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The filing discusses Progressive's outlook, capital allocation, and key risks for upcoming quarters, including guidance ranges or operating priorities where disclosed in MD&A.

Tailwinds

  • Premium growth and underwriting discipline support combined-ratio targets.
  • Progressive cites execution and demand supporting the near-term outlook.
  • Liquidity and balance-sheet capacity support operations and shareholder returns.

Headwinds

  • Macro, input costs, and FX may pressure margins quarter to quarter.
  • Segment mix and one-time items can affect comparability versus prior periods.
  • Catastrophe weather and loss-cost inflation remain industry risks.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2025

Historical avgQ2 2025

+0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.8%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

38 / 73 earnings

Positive

+9.6%

Q3 2023

Best reaction

-11.6%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.2%+3.7%+1.6%
Q4 2025+2.1%-2.4%+2.7%
Q3 2025-5.9%-8.7%-6.3%
Q2 2025+0.7%+0.6%-0.4%
Q1 2025-0.4%-6.8%+3.6%
Q4 2024+0.6%+1.6%+15.1%
Q3 2024+1.4%-0.3%+2.2%
Q2 2024+2.0%+1.0%+9.1%
Q1 2024+2.1%+3.4%+6.7%
Q4 2023+4.5%+4.4%+12.3%
Q3 2023+9.6%+11.1%+11.9%
Q2 2023-11.6%-9.3%-3.2%
Q1 2023-8.3%-6.4%-9.9%
Q4 2022+4.4%+4.8%+9.8%
Q3 2022-4.5%-0.9%+4.0%
Q2 2022-1.8%-0.9%+8.4%
Q1 2022-3.7%-2.4%-5.3%
Q4 2021-1.5%-0.6%-1.9%
Q3 2021+0.5%+2.0%+5.9%
Q2 2021-1.3%-3.1%-1.4%
Q1 2021+1.6%+2.7%+10.2%
Q4 2020-3.5%-6.0%-6.3%
Q3 2020-2.8%-4.5%-4.6%
Q2 2020+3.1%+4.3%+5.3%
Q1 2020-1.7%+1.8%-5.3%
Q4 2019+7.0%+5.4%-4.3%
Q3 2019-4.7%-6.6%-2.8%
Q2 2019-3.5%-3.7%-7.9%
Q1 2019+5.4%+3.8%+7.7%
Q4 2018+3.1%+3.0%+14.2%
Q3 2018+6.6%+6.5%+0.1%
Q2 2018+3.4%+2.4%+11.3%
Q1 2018+0.4%+0.2%-0.9%
Q4 2017-2.3%-6.9%+1.2%
Q3 2017-1.8%-0.1%+5.3%
Q2 2017+0.5%+2.0%+6.7%
Q1 2017-1.7%-0.5%+5.1%
Q4 2016+3.9%+2.4%+6.7%
Q3 2016+3.3%+1.3%+4.9%
Q2 2016-0.5%-1.2%+2.1%
Q1 2016-3.8%
Q4 2015+4.2%
Q3 2015+2.7%
Q2 2015+1.9%
Q1 2015+1.6%
Q4 2014-0.1%
Q3 2014-1.8%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014-1.4%
Q4 2013-2.9%
Q3 2013+1.3%
Q2 2013-0.2%
Q1 2013-0.2%
Q4 2012+1.5%
Q3 2012+1.7%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q1 2012+0.4%
Q4 2011-0.1%
Q3 2011+3.8%
Q2 2011+0.6%
Q1 2011+0.3%
Q4 2010-3.4%
Q3 2010-2.2%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q1 2009+4.0%
Q1 2010+0.6%
Q4 2007+0.5%
Q4 2009+0.5%
Q3 2008+4.0%
Q3 2009+4.0%
Q2 2009-3.5%
Q2 2008-3.5%
Q4 2008-3.5%

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