NYSE$NI

Nisource Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

NiSource reported a net loss on a GAAP basis, but reaffirmed 2020 capital expenditure and 2021 non-GAAP NOEPS guidance.

NiSource reported a GAAP net loss of $186.7 million, or $0.49 per share, for the three months ended September 30, 2020. However, the company reaffirmed its 2020 capital investment forecast of $1.7 to $1.8 billion and its 2021 non-GAAP net operating earnings guidance in the range of $1.28 to $1.36 per share.

  • Safety & asset modernization, renewable generation transition and continued customer affordability remain top priorities
  • 2020 CapEx and 2021 non-GAAP NOEPS guidance reaffirmed
  • Additional renewable generation projects announced in Indiana
  • Sale of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts closed in October

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$903M

Previous: $932M-3.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.09

Previous: $0.02+410.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.29B

Previous: -$1.31B+1.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.47B

Previous: -$1.3B-12.4%
Net Income

-$173M

Previous: $6.6M-2719.7%
Operating Income

$92.8M

Previous: $91M+2.0%
Gross Profit

$92.8M

Previous: $735M-87.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$58.6M

Previous: $28M+109.3%
Total Assets

$22.7B

Previous: $22.1B+2.6%
R&D Expense

$0.00

Previous: $0.00

Revenue & EPS history

Nisource · Revenue · Quarterly

$903M

Q3 2020-3.1%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

NiSource reaffirmed its 2020 capital investment forecast of $1.7 to $1.8 billion, and its 2021 non-GAAP net operating earnings guidance in the range of $1.28 to $1.36 per share. The company continues to expect to grow its net operating earnings per share by 7 to 9% on a compound annual growth rate basis from 2021 through 2024, including near-term annual growth of 5 to 7% through 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Reaffirmed 2020 capital investment forecast
  • Reaffirmed 2021 non-GAAP net operating earnings guidance
  • Expects 7-9% net operating earnings per share growth from 2021-2024
  • Expects $1.9 to $2.2 billion annual growth, safety, and modernization investments
  • Expects $1.8 to $2.0 billion of investments in renewable generation assets

Headwinds

  • Modest commercial and industrial load impacts due to COVID-19
  • Impacts on revenues are being mitigated by cost management measures
  • Pennsylvania base rate case order expected in Q1 2021, creating uncertainty
  • Maryland base rate case order expected in November 2020, creating uncertainty
  • NIPSCO tracker update request order expected by year-end, creating uncertainty

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

35 / 64 earnings

Positive

+4.6%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-6.6%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.6%-3.0%-3.3%
Q4 2025-0.2%+3.6%+5.9%
Q3 2025-2.2%-1.9%+1.7%
Q1 2025+3.0%-2.6%-0.2%
Q4 2024+1.0%+3.3%+2.7%
Q3 2024+1.3%+0.8%+2.2%
Q2 2024+0.4%+2.0%+7.3%
Q1 2024-0.7%-1.7%+0.7%
Q4 2023+1.7%+1.8%-1.6%
Q3 2023+2.5%+0.5%+4.1%
Q2 2023-1.9%-2.9%-3.3%
Q1 2023+1.6%+1.9%-4.1%
Q4 2022+3.5%+2.0%-0.7%
Q3 2022-3.7%-0.3%+6.9%
Q2 2022-0.8%-0.7%-1.8%
Q1 2022+1.2%+1.7%+8.5%
Q4 2021-0.1%+2.0%+9.8%
Q3 2021+1.3%+1.3%+1.5%
Q2 2021+0.5%-0.3%-1.0%
Q1 2021-0.7%+2.0%-1.7%
Q4 2020+2.1%+0.0%+5.9%
Q3 2020+4.6%+1.1%+7.2%
Q2 2020+0.8%+2.7%-7.7%
Q1 2020-6.6%-4.2%+2.2%
Q4 2019-3.8%+0.6%-12.8%
Q3 2019+2.7%+0.0%-3.1%
Q2 2019+1.6%-5.0%-0.1%
Q1 2019-0.7%+0.4%+0.3%
Q4 2018-1.9%-1.8%+6.2%
Q3 2018+0.3%+2.9%+4.2%
Q2 2018+0.4%+2.3%+3.4%
Q1 2018+4.3%+3.9%+0.9%
Q4 2017-2.9%+0.5%-0.4%
Q3 2017+2.2%+3.2%+3.6%
Q2 2017+1.0%+0.5%+2.4%
Q4 2016-1.8%-0.9%+7.8%
Q1 2017+0.2%+0.6%+8.7%
Q3 2016-5.0%-5.8%-6.7%
Q2 2016-1.8%-3.7%-7.7%
Q1 2016+2.5%
Q4 2015+2.4%
Q3 2015+0.9%
Q2 2015-3.7%
Q1 2015-0.3%
Q4 2014+2.2%
Q3 2014+1.1%
Q2 2014-3.3%
Q1 2014+2.0%
Q4 2013+0.7%
Q3 2013+0.0%
Q2 2013+0.8%
Q1 2013-1.7%
Q4 2012+1.0%
Q3 2012-2.6%
Q2 2012-1.0%
Q1 2012+1.5%
Q4 2011-0.1%
Q3 2011-1.4%
Q2 2011+2.4%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q4 2010-0.5%
Q3 2010-1.6%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q1 2010-2.7%

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