NYSE$MED

Medifast Inc · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Medifast reported an exceptional quarter of growth and productivity, driven by the abilities of independent OPTAVIA Coaches and employees.

Medifast reported a significant increase in revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2021. Revenue increased by 90.9% to $340.7 million, driven by a rise in active OPTAVIA Coaches and increased productivity. Net income also saw a substantial increase, reaching $41.1 million, or $3.46 per diluted share.

  • First quarter revenue increased by 90.9% to $340.7 million compared to the prior-year period.
  • The total number of active earning OPTAVIA Coaches increased 61.0% to 52,500.
  • Average revenue per active earning OPTAVIA Coach increased 21.0% to $6,454.
  • First quarter net income was $41.1 million, or $3.46 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$341M

Previous: $178M+90.9%
EPS (adj)

$3.46

Previous: $1.93+79.3%
Independent active earning coaches

52.5K

Previous: 32.6K+61.0%
Average revenue per active earning coach

$6.45K

Previous: $5.33K+21.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$4.6M

Previous: -$294K-1463.9%
Free Cash Flow

$36.5M

Previous: $18.2M+100.5%
Net Income

$41.1M

Previous: $18.5M+122.2%
Operating Income

$52.8M

Previous: $23.5M+124.4%
Gross Profit

$249M

Previous: $135M+83.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$213M

Previous: $90.7M+134.8%
Total Assets

$326M

Previous: $202M+61.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.2M

Previous: $981K+124.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Medifast · Revenue · Quarterly

$341M

Q1 2021+90.9%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company expects full-year 2021 revenue to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.475 billion and full-year 2021 EPS to be in the range of $12.69 to $14.14. The full-year 2021 earnings guidance assumes a 23.0% to 24.0% effective tax rate.

Tailwinds

  • Full-year 2021 revenue expected to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.475 billion.
  • Full-year 2021 EPS expected to be in the range of $12.69 to $14.14.
  • Earnings guidance assumes a 23.0% to 24.0% effective tax rate.
  • Company maintains a strong balance sheet.
  • Company prioritizes capital allocation to drive long-term stockholder value.

Headwinds

  • Risks associated with Medifast’s direct-to-consumer business model.
  • Impact of rapid growth on Medifast’s systems.
  • Disruptions in Medifast’s supply chain.
  • Inability to maintain and grow the network of independent OPTAVIA Coaches.
  • Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Medifast’s results.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

33 / 65 earnings

Positive

+31.6%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-29.9%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.2%+19.7%+16.7%
Q4 2025-0.8%-1.9%-7.4%
Q3 2025+0.8%+0.4%-8.6%
Q1 2025-0.6%+5.3%+10.8%
Q4 2024-11.4%-8.4%-11.1%
Q3 2024+9.8%+3.1%+6.2%
Q2 2024-5.6%-9.0%-11.8%
Q1 2024-18.3%-20.8%-25.4%
Q4 2023-19.2%-18.5%-28.7%
Q3 2023-1.5%-6.5%+3.3%
Q2 2023-9.5%-4.9%-18.5%
Q1 2023-3.8%-0.7%-14.1%
Q4 2022-10.8%-4.6%-15.3%
Q3 2022-3.2%-1.6%+9.0%
Q2 2022-15.2%-21.9%-31.9%
Q1 2022+5.4%+1.8%-2.0%
Q4 2021-5.6%+1.7%-6.4%
Q3 2021+3.7%+4.7%-7.1%
Q2 2021-8.7%-14.1%-17.4%
Q1 2021+7.8%+18.9%+35.3%
Q4 2020-3.9%-0.8%-14.7%
Q3 2020+12.9%+23.5%+45.4%
Q2 2020-5.7%-5.0%-8.0%
Q1 2020+18.5%+30.1%+46.7%
Q4 2019-9.7%-13.4%-31.5%
Q3 2019-29.9%-24.8%-14.7%
Q2 2019-7.6%-7.8%-10.5%
Q1 2019-2.1%+3.6%-12.1%
Q4 2018+0.9%-0.7%+0.3%
Q3 2018-28.3%-25.3%-32.4%
Q2 2018+25.8%+17.4%+35.0%
Q1 2018+22.3%+19.3%+50.0%
Q4 2017+31.6%+32.5%+44.0%
Q3 2017+14.7%+13.1%+16.6%
Q2 2017+18.6%+20.7%+31.7%
Q1 2017+3.4%+3.8%-6.1%
Q4 2016-3.7%-4.4%-1.4%
Q3 2016-5.0%-4.5%-4.7%
Q2 2016-0.2%+0.8%+5.9%
Q1 2016+0.8%
Q4 2015-5.6%
Q3 2015+6.9%
Q2 2015-9.2%
Q1 2015+5.3%
Q4 2014-3.1%
Q3 2014+2.5%
Q2 2014-9.5%
Q1 2014-8.5%
Q4 2013+3.4%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013-4.3%
Q1 2013-3.8%
Q4 2012-5.4%
Q3 2012+10.4%
Q2 2012+28.5%
Q1 2011+8.9%
Q1 2012+3.2%
Q4 2011+0.9%
Q4 2009+0.9%
Q3 2010+1.9%
Q3 2011+1.9%
Q4 2010+4.3%
Q2 2010+4.3%
Q2 2011+4.3%
Q1 2010+10.1%

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