NYSE$HGV

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Hilton Grand Vacations reported its Q4 2019 earnings, which included solid execution and a return to contract sales growth.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. reported a decrease in total revenues for the fourth quarter of 2019, with a net income of $72 million compared to $120 million for the same period in 2018. The total revenues were $468 million compared to $642 million for the same period in 2018. Diluted EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.83 compared to $1.24 for the same period in 2018.

  • Total revenues for the fourth quarter were $468 million compared to $642 million for the same period in 2018.
  • Net income for the fourth quarter was $72 million compared to $120 million for the same period in 2018.
  • Diluted EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.83 compared to $1.24 for the same period in 2018.
  • Contract sales in the fourth quarter were $365 million, an increase of 1.4% from the same period in 2018.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$468M

Previous: $642M-27.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.61

Previous: $1.24-50.8%
Capital Expenditures

$12M

Previous: $15M-20.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$15M

Previous: $31M-148.4%
Net Income

$72M

Previous: $120M-40.0%
Operating Income

$84M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$153M

Previous: $238M-35.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$67M

Previous: $108M-38.0%
Total Assets

$3.08B

Previous: $2.75B+11.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $3M+33.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Hilton Grand Vacations · Revenue · Quarterly

$468M

Q4 2019-27.1%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Hilton Grand Vacations provided its full year 2020 outlook, excluding any potential impact of the coronavirus. Net income is projected to be between $198 and $208 million, and diluted EPS is projected to be between $2.28 and $2.39. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $400 and $415 million, and contract sales growth is expected to be 3% to 7%.

Tailwinds

  • Net income is projected to be between $198 and $208 million.
  • Diluted EPS is projected to be between $2.28 and $2.39.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $400 and $415 million.
  • Contract sales growth is expected to be 3% to 7%.
  • Adjusted free cash flow is projected to be between $50 and $110 million.

Headwinds

  • Net income is expected to be affected by a net deferral of $55 to $60 million.
  • Diluted EPS is expected to be affected by a net deferral of $55 to $60 million or $0.63 to $0.69 per share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be affected by a net deferral of $55 to $60 million.
  • The 2020 outlook does not reflect any additional share repurchases.
  • This outlook also excludes any potential impact of the coronavirus

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

19 / 41 earnings

Positive

+18.1%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.1%

Q2 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.2%+7.1%+19.9%
Q4 2025-3.7%-8.8%-22.1%
Q3 2025-6.7%-8.1%-3.0%
Q1 2025+9.3%+12.4%+13.5%
Q4 2024+4.9%+1.2%-7.8%
Q3 2024+5.9%+7.5%+4.1%
Q2 2024-10.2%-8.5%-5.3%
Q1 2024-2.9%-2.3%-6.8%
Q4 2023-7.2%-8.9%-2.9%
Q3 2023-6.9%-9.7%-0.8%
Q2 2023-2.8%+1.5%-2.3%
Q1 2023-2.8%-0.2%+2.5%
Q4 2022+0.3%+5.2%-6.9%
Q3 2022+17.9%+14.5%+9.8%
Q2 2022+1.6%+4.6%-7.1%
Q1 2022+2.0%+1.5%+9.1%
Q4 2021-1.4%-6.5%+0.3%
Q3 2021-3.3%-5.5%-6.1%
Q2 2021+0.5%-1.2%+6.8%
Q1 2021+0.1%+0.8%+2.7%
Q4 2020+2.4%+2.6%-5.1%
Q3 2020-0.4%+12.2%+37.8%
Q2 2020-0.8%+1.6%+13.9%
Q1 2020-9.2%-16.2%+2.9%
Q4 2019-2.1%-5.3%-36.5%
Q3 2019+2.4%+4.0%+0.4%
Q2 2019-19.1%-19.4%+3.3%
Q1 2019-6.4%-6.4%-20.7%
Q4 2018-1.9%+2.8%-4.8%
Q3 2018+18.1%+12.7%+19.2%
Q2 2018-0.2%-1.9%-5.6%
Q1 2018-4.1%-7.0%-6.0%
Q4 2015+3.0%+5.3%-0.3%
Q4 2017+0.7%+3.2%+0.0%
Q3 2016-0.7%+2.2%-3.3%
Q3 2017-0.8%-0.5%-3.1%
Q2 2016+0.0%-1.2%+1.0%
Q2 2017+0.7%-1.0%-0.1%
Q1 2016+5.9%+6.4%+5.8%
Q1 2017+3.4%+1.9%+3.7%
Q4 2016+1.4%-0.8%-4.3%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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