NYSE$EBS

Emergent BioSolutions Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Emergent BioSolutions' Q4 2019 financial performance was reported, marked by increased revenues and net income compared to Q4 2018.

Emergent BioSolutions reported a strong Q4 2019 with a 33% increase in total revenues, driven by increased sales of ACAM2000 and NARCAN Nasal Spray. Net income significantly improved, and the company reaffirmed its 2020 financial forecast.

  • Total revenues increased by 33% to $360.4 million compared to Q4 2018.
  • Net income was $46.9 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $3.4 million in Q4 2018.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 76.2% to $134.3 million compared to Q4 2018.
  • The company reaffirmed its full year 2020 financial forecast, with total revenues expected to be between $1.175 billion and $1.275 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$360M

Previous: $271M+33.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.57

Previous: $0.75+109.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$134M

Previous: $76.2M+76.2%
Capital Expenditures

$36.1M

Previous: $20.8M+73.3%
Free Cash Flow

$86M

Previous: -$187M+146.1%
Net Income

$46.9M

Previous: -$3.4M+1479.4%
Operating Income

$77.8M

Previous: $11.2M+594.6%
Gross Profit

$228M

Previous: $158M+44.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$168M

Previous: $112M+49.6%
Total Assets

$2.33B

Previous: $2.23B+4.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.7M

Previous: $6.54M-12.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Emergent BioSolutions · Revenue · Quarterly

$360M

Q4 2019+33.1%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Emergent BioSolutions · $108M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Other Products
    $50.1M+99.6%
  • Anthrax MCM
    $32.9M
  • Smallpox MCM
    $24.7M

Forward guidance

For full year 2020, the Company reaffirms its expectation of the following forecasted financial metrics originally presented on January 13, 2020:(in millions)FULL YEAR 2020 (As of 2/20/2020)Total Revenues$1,175 -- $1,275Adjusted Net Income (1)$160 -- $210Adjusted EBITDA (1)$300 -- $360

Tailwinds

  • continued growth in sales of NARCAN Nasal Spray to a range of $285 -- $315 million
  • combined deliveries of AV7909 (2) and BioThrax to the SNS in a range of $270 -- $300 million
  • deliveries of ACAM2000 in a range of $180 -- $200 million under procurement contracts with the U.S. government and other foreign governments
  • deliveries of raxibacumab to the SNS under the anticipated follow-on procurement contract with the ASPR
  • domestic and international sales of the other medical countermeasures that comprise Other Product sales

Headwinds

  • continued expansion of our molecule-to-market CDMO services across our Development Services, Drug Substance and Drug Product offerings
  • continued improvement of gross margin in a range of 200 -- 400 basis points, driven by improved product mix
  • continued investment in discretionary development projects funded by the company, most notably the anticipated Phase 3 studies for both the CHIKV VLP and FLU-IGIV product candidates, among other R&D projects

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

30 / 64 earnings

Positive

+75.5%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-41.2%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.0%+13.3%+13.5%
Q4 2025-27.1%-21.0%-28.6%
Q3 2025+36.9%+7.3%+18.8%
Q1 2025+35.0%+24.1%+39.9%
Q4 2024-6.4%-15.5%-29.3%
Q3 2024+22.8%+33.6%+0.6%
Q2 2024-41.2%-27.1%-21.5%
Q1 2024+75.5%+111.7%+203.2%
Q4 2023-18.8%-17.9%-32.8%
Q3 2023-8.9%-22.9%+5.5%
Q2 2023-20.0%-25.9%-40.9%
Q1 2023+18.5%+0.7%-8.0%
Q4 2022-9.7%-15.0%-31.8%
Q3 2022-36.7%-22.5%-38.6%
Q2 2022-12.6%-8.6%-30.7%
Q1 2022-11.2%-8.5%-3.4%
Q4 2021-6.7%-2.2%+4.1%
Q3 2021-37.0%-33.3%-20.3%
Q2 2021+1.1%-2.7%-1.5%
Q1 2021-1.7%-4.8%-2.3%
Q4 2020-15.9%-23.7%-25.7%
Q3 2020-6.1%-10.9%-15.8%
Q2 2020+18.1%+30.1%+24.8%
Q1 2020+6.4%+7.5%+12.9%
Q4 2019+2.1%-7.2%-23.6%
Q3 2019-5.4%-7.6%-5.4%
Q2 2019+1.5%+0.7%-0.8%
Q1 2019-8.0%-9.2%-23.7%
Q4 2018-2.8%-11.0%-25.8%
Q3 2018+6.0%+12.6%+19.0%
Q2 2018+3.9%+0.2%+13.8%
Q1 2018-4.0%-4.9%+1.4%
Q4 2017-3.0%+0.6%+6.6%
Q3 2017+7.0%-3.6%+9.1%
Q2 2017-1.1%-1.2%+4.2%
Q1 2017-3.5%+3.2%+5.6%
Q4 2016+0.1%+4.9%-3.7%
Q3 2016+9.8%+22.0%+4.7%
Q2 2016-2.1%-2.6%-11.6%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015-3.8%
Q3 2015+2.5%
Q2 2015+5.2%
Q1 2015-2.0%
Q4 2014-3.6%
Q3 2014+7.6%
Q2 2014-2.6%
Q1 2014-10.5%
Q4 2013+9.1%
Q3 2013+9.1%
Q2 2013+1.6%
Q1 2013-5.0%
Q4 2012+1.8%
Q3 2012+8.4%
Q2 2012+1.1%
Q1 2012+4.9%
Q4 2011+4.6%
Q1 2011+4.6%
Q4 2009+8.1%
Q3 2011-5.3%
Q3 2010-5.3%
Q2 2010-8.2%
Q2 2011-8.2%
Q1 2010-1.5%

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