NASDAQ$TIGO

Millicom International Cellular SA · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Millicom reported lower revenue in Q4 2024, but improved profitability and strong cash flow generation.

Millicom posted revenue of $1.43 billion in Q4 2024, a 3.2% year-over-year decline due to lower B2B sales in Panama. However, operating profit surged 63.4% to $373 million, driven by efficiency gains. Net income improved to $31 million from a $63 million loss in Q4 2023. Free cash flow jumped to $213 million, reflecting disciplined capital spending and lower spectrum payments.

  • Revenue declined 3.2% year-over-year to $1.43 billion.
  • Operating profit increased 63.4% to $373 million.
  • Net income improved to $31 million from a $63 million loss in Q4 2023.
  • Equity free cash flow surged to $236 million, supporting debt reduction efforts.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.43B

No prior period
EPS (adj)

$0.18

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$618M

No prior period
Mobile ARPU

$6.30

No prior period
Home ARPU

$26.40

No prior period
Equity Free Cash Flow

$236M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$176M

No prior period
Net Income

$31M

No prior period
Operating Income

$373M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$788M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Millicom · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.43B

Q4 2024
Beat estimate in 1 of 14 quarters(7%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Millicom expects stable revenue and improved profitability in 2025, with a focus on efficiency measures, debt reduction, and dividend payments.

Tailwinds

  • Targeting $750 million in Equity Free Cash Flow for 2025.
  • Continued debt reduction efforts, with leverage expected to remain below 2.5x.
  • Strategic initiatives in Costa Rica and Colombia to drive revenue growth.
  • Planned sale of non-core assets expected to strengthen balance sheet.
  • Resumption of quarterly dividends with a $3.00 per share annual payout.

Headwinds

  • Weak foreign exchange rates may impact revenue growth.
  • Regulatory risks and potential legal challenges in key markets.
  • Competitive pressures in mobile and fixed broadband segments.
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty in Latin America could affect consumer spending.
  • Higher financing costs due to elevated interest rate environment.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

9 / 21 earnings

Positive

+14.2%

Q2 2022

Best reaction

-11.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2024-2.5%-6.5%+8.4%
Q1 2024+6.8%+7.0%+14.8%
Q3 2023+4.7%+7.3%+18.2%
Q2 2023-6.5%-8.5%-9.4%
Q1 2023-6.3%-9.1%-5.9%
Q4 2022+10.5%+6.3%-1.3%
Q3 2022-3.1%+2.1%+24.6%
Q2 2022+14.2%+6.0%+9.4%
Q1 2022-7.5%-3.1%-25.4%
Q4 2021-1.9%+0.5%-14.3%
Q3 2021-3.5%-2.6%-12.4%
Q2 2021-5.8%-5.4%-10.9%
Q1 2021+2.8%+9.7%+17.2%
Q4 2020+1.0%+1.8%+7.5%
Q3 2020+2.5%+5.5%+40.4%
Q2 2020+4.3%+1.7%+5.7%
Q1 2020-11.5%-14.8%-14.5%
Q4 2019+7.3%+2.8%-32.9%
Q3 2019-8.9%-9.5%-9.0%
Q2 2019-2.7%-7.9%-14.5%
Q1 2019-1.4%-0.8%-5.7%

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